Hypotheses: Scheduled Unique Events

Prediction Registry

Introduction

Scheduled Regular Events
Scheduled Unique Events
Unpredictable Events
Other Events Introduction

RDN, pred. 1998-09-11, before the event: An American event, but with some significance to the world. The Clinton affair rises to a new height of public scrutiny with planned publication of Grand Jury report on the web, sometime in the afternoon of 98-09-11, assuming the congress approves this unique public display of "evidence" without response by the defendant. We will look at the point event surrounded by minimal data blocks (+/- 15 min), and look also at the premath/aftermath of 1 hour/3 hours. SAS reports that the "referral" was released to the media "officially" at 14:00 EDT, and hit the web at 15:54.

Hand calculation: No significant departure. Event: Chi-square 14.72, 10 df, p = 0.14.

Note: This event was specified, but inadvertently not included in the Results table until the error was reported by Eckhard Etzold in October 2002.
Notes on analysis in response to a question: The formal analysis was for the period of 30 mins surrounding the "publication time", specifically, the period from 20:45 to 21:15 on Sept 11 1998. There were five eggs reporting, thus 10 df. The Chisquare (sum of the Z^2 for the 15 min blocks was 14.722).

RDN, pred. 1998-10-06, before the event: "Nothing to Fear" A Global Peace Vigil to Collectively Affirm the Power of Love. Friday, November 13, 1998 9:30 to 9:45 p.m. Eastern Time. Instructions break the 15 minute period into three 5 minute periods. In the present case, I predict a positive result of small magnitude, distributed across the 15 minutes. A more recent communication of the same group specifies a time of 11:11 on the 11th of November as a time for meditation, but with no period indicated. Based on the general approach, the 15 minute period including 11:11, will be assessed, i.e., 11:00 to 11:15, with a prediction of a small positive effect.

Hand calculation: No significant departure. Event 1: Chi-square 6.328, 5 df, p = 0.276, Event 2: Chi-square 5.839, 5 df, p = 0.322, Combined: Chi-square 12.167, 10 df, p = 0.274.

RDN, pred. 1998-12-07, before the event: (This prediction stimulated by a visit from members of the World Peace Prayer Society.) On December 10 1998 the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Human Rights will be celebrated at the UN beginning at 9 am continuing until Pavarotti sings from 8 to 9:15 in the evening. The UN website offers detail. I will predict a small positive deviation of composite Chi-square from expectation, with a peak beginning at 6:30 PM for the first hour of a Special Event including an introduction of the Human Rights Prize awardees and the launch of the United Nations Website of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 250 languages. (Times are EST, add 5 hours for UTC) In August, 1999, finally able to do the analysis for the one-hour period, resulting in Chisquare 26.402, 28 df, p = 0.551.

RDN, pred. Conjunction of Venus and Jupiter, 1999-02-23, about 4 PM EST = about 21:00. Not sure how to predict, but I'll try this: Conjunction time plus or minus a day or two, with a prediction also of concentration of deviation closer, say plus or minus an hour, roughly. Check these in 15 minute blocks and in the variance as a function of blocksize.

Note: This event is not included in the Results table, but there was no explanation until the error was reported by Eckhard Etzold in October 2002. The reason is that the prediction was too vague. No analysis for this event ever was done.

RDN: Pred 21 March, 1999, prior to the Oscars (Academy Awards) show, to be broadcast at 20:00 for the "preshow" and 20:30 for the Oscar show proper. (01:00 and 01:30 on 22 March UTC.) Based on earlier events assessed by Dean Radin, the prediction is that periods of presentation will be associated with deviations, while commercial breaks will be flat. Times of the presentations vs commercial breaks will be noted by RDN.

Note: This event is not included in the Results table, but there was no explanation until the error was reported by Eckhard Etzold in October 2002. The reason is that the notation of timing for commercial breaks was not done (I could not watch the show). No analysis for this event ever was done.

Suzanne Taylor: Pred 5 April, 1999, in email note:
"This is to bring to your attention a 2-minute a day prayer for the Kosovo situation. It is taking place at noon PST, simultaneously all over the world. Marianne Williamson was the spokesperson who announced this, in an hour long broadcast from the Internet on Saturday. It is to go on for one month, which makes the end date May 3." This is an implicit prediction for some coherence generated by the organized prayer, comprising 2 minutes per day over 31 days. The combined Chisquare for the corresponding data was 383.11, with 360 degrees of freedom and a p-value of 0.193, positive, but not significant.

Victor Kraak, 1999-04-29: I'd like to make a prediction for the GCP, based on the ending of the five-year interim autonomy period agreed in the Oslo peace accords with Israel and the PLO. Although this morning I learned that Arafat delayed his declaration of Palestina as an independent state until June (instead of making a declaration at the fourth of May, as was feared and assumed), I still think that this official moment will cause a substantial amount of "resonance" under Palestinian and Israeli people. The magnitude of a five-year autonomy will weigh heavily on a lot of people that are involved. As a concrete prediction I think that the activity of EGGs all over the world will be less random on the 4th of May 1999 from 00:00 hrs to 0:15 hrs Israeli time (UTC time: 22:00-22:15 hrs on the 3rd of May) compared to the activity of the EGGs one day earlier during the same time interval (so: 3rd of May 00:00-00:15 Israeli time => [will show greater cumulative deviation than] 2nd of May 22:00-22:15 UTC time). [Using the standard procedure, we also will predict, for exploration, larger deviation compared with theoretical expectation.] I first considered that perhaps one hour before the 4th of May could be more loaded with "global tension", because everybody is waiting to see whether things will remain quiet. However, I reasoned that more attention will be directed to and after the moment of actual/official autonomy ending.
Analysis: During the predicted period, 22:00 to 22:15 on 3 May, 1999 UTC, 15 eggs were running, and their composite Chisquare = 24.712, with 15 degrees of freedom, and p = 0.054, which is marginally significant relative to expectation (the standard analysis). Kraak's prediction relative to the data taken one day earlier is also correct: 22:00 to 22:15 on 2 May has Chisquare 18.819, 14 df, p = 0.172.
NOTE: Several weeks after the event and the analysis, Kraak sent a note indicating he had made a mistake in the date, and that the actual ceramony took place on the 5th rather than the 4th of May, and according to his analysis, the GCP data taken at the correct time were not significantly deviant. The original analysis may thus be added to the various indications that an "experimenter effect" must be given serious consideration as an important contributor to the GCP results.

Jiri Wackermann, pred. approx 1998-04: Eclipse of the Sun, 11 August 1999. Several people have in the meantime provided some detailed elements for this prediction. In addition, astrologers describe an "inauspicious" conjunction of 5 planets including the Sun and Moon in the eclipse configuration, Mars, Saturn, and Uranus (I think) forming a cross. The specific GCP prediction is a composite of the suggestions made by several people.
Wackermann, Walker, Etzold, and Bierman all intend to examine this as a European event since the path of totality is primarily there. Details may be found at a NASA site. The eclipse will be visible in Britain, France, Luxemburg, Germany, Austria, Hungary and Romania, then progresses to Turkey, Iran, and India. The Moon's umbral shadow passes Cornwall at 10:11 UTC and will enter Turkey at 11:21 UT. The instant of greatest eclipse is at 11:03:04 in Romania north of Bucharest, where the duration of totality will be 2 minutes and 22 seconds. Etzold predicts a medium positive deviation of composite Chi-square for the European EGGs for the time interval of 10:00 UTC to 11:00 UTC. Bierman also wishes to study the behavior of the European eggs before, during and after the eclipse, predicting extra variance during the eclipse. Bierman specifically intends to explore the behavior of European vs US data.
The eclipse begins in the North Atlantic at 09:30:57 UT, with the first major landfall at 10:10 UT. London experiences partiality with magnitude 0.968. India is the last nation in the path, with the eleven million inhabitants of Calcutta witnessing a 0.879 magnitude partial eclipse with the Sun 2� above the western horizon. The shadow sweeps into the Bay of Bengal and back into space at 12:36:23 UT. Over the course of 3 hours and 7 minutes, the Moon's umbra travels along a path approximately 14000 kilometers long, covering 0.2% of Earth's surface area.
The formal GCP prediction is for increased variance in 2 minute blocks over the period of about three hours when the eclipse is partially visible anywhere on earth, from 09:30 to 12:36 UT. We will compare data from Europe and India against that from US and elsewhere, predicting larger deviations in the European group.

Although this is rather private material, I think it is important to look at the data around some times where I have been affected by concerns for my mother, who yesterday (990831) had surgery to remove a possibly cancerous lump. I first learned there was a problem a week ago last Friday (0821) around 18:00 local, then on Thursday (0829), she had the first inconclusive biopsy report, then Monday (0830) had surgery. Tuesday evening late (maybe 10) I had the news the surgery had gone fine, and today (0901) a great talk with her. These dates and the associated times need to be checked, but I want to record the outline of a prediction for positive deviation, low effect; 15-min blocks, and best estimate of the time as event centered in one hour period. The motivation here is to try to understand a possible "experimenter effect" by asking whether personally intense material experienced by the project director (and chief predictor) may show anomalous results. This is an informal exploration, not to be included in the GCP formal tally.

Billion Person Meditation event. A formal prediction was made on 18 October, for a medium response during the time of the event described in the press release for the One Billion Person Peace Meditation 99. The timing is 6:00 PM Hawaii Time, Sunday, October 24, 1999, corresponding to 04:00 Monday morning, GMT. The publicity addresses the whole world, however. The actual meditation is scheduled for a ten-minute period from 6:10 to 6:20 pm. The time period for the prediction will be from 6:00 to 6:30 (04:00 to 04:30, UTC, Monday, 25 October, 1999) using 10-minute blocking.

December 22 is Winter Solstice, and the Full Moon. The moon will be unusually bright because of orbital coincidences and there is, in addition, a galactic alignment that is extraordinary. (This is described fully in the Gaiamind website). The several factors come close to alignment, but for the EGG prediction we will use the smallest, most visible cycle, the exact full moon, which occurs at 5:30 pm, UT. It is not obvious how much time around that moment to include in the prediction so I have arbitrarily decided to use the 4.8 minute "global moment" that was mystically calculated early in development of the EGG project. For analysis, the block size will be raw seconds, but a second, exploratory calculation will use the 4.8-minute period itself. The prediction will be formal, but in the medium category, since it is not obviously a major global event in terms of human interest. It is, rather, more of a cosmically oriented event, in which the earth is a unitary whole in a larger scheme of things. In addition, this event has a lineage from the Gaiamind event (see the link above) which was the first effort to record an effect of Global Consciousness using a network of REG sites. The prediction was stimulated by an internet "rumor" about this full moon being the brightest in more than a hundred years. Then, Jim Fournier added information about an extraordinary alignment with the galactic center, which, although it has a large possible error, provides an aesthetically pleasing context for the earth and human scale events.

The Pope visits Israel, Speaks at the sea of Galilee, Sermon on the mount, dateline Fri Mar 24 11:56 ET [I'm guessing this means EST, UTC-0500 hours]. Quotes from articles via Yahoo.
Reinhilde makes a general prediction: "You should be thinking about the Pope's visit. That is a Global Event. People listen and cry because they are so grateful to hear such a loud, clear voice. This is more important than your personal experience at the Deutsche Requiem." The following timed points in the Pope's trip can be correlated with parameters of the multiple, synchronized timeseries of normally random egg data.
1. Arrival, Weismann, Tel Aviv, Tuesday March 21 11:37 AM ET
  ``In this year of the 2,000th anniversary of the birth of Jesus Christ, it has been my strong personal desire to come here and to pray in the most important places which, from ancient times, have seen God's interventions, the wonders he has done.''
2. Bethlehem, Plea for Palestine, Wednesday March 22 1:54 PM ET
  ``I appeal to political leaders to implement agreements already arrived at, and to go forward toward the peace for which all reasonable men and women yearn.''
3. Visit to Holocaust Museum, tears, Thursday, Mar 23, dateline 7:27 AM ET
  Saying he had come to pay homage to the millions of Jewish victims, the Pope declared: ``There are no words strong enough to deplore the terrible tragedy of the Shoah'' -- the Hebrew word for Holocaust.
4. Sermon at Galilee, Friday March 24 11:56 AM ET
  He urged the 100,000 pilgrims to take the ancient message into Christianity's third millennium and resist what he called ''the voice of evil'' of modern times. ``It is a voice which says: 'Blessed are the proud and violent, those who prosper at any cost, who are unscrupulous, pitiless, devious, who make war not peace, and persecute those who stand in their way'.''
5. Meeting with Ehud Barak, Friday March 24 11:56 AM ET
  ``It carried with it a highly important message about peace and tolerance and compassion, not just among human beings, but among nations,'' Barak said.
6. Visits to three Churches, Friday March 24 11:56 AM ET
  The Pope also made a private tour of three small Christian shrines on the shores of the Sea of Galilee. They included the Church of the Multiplication of the Loaves, where tradition says Jesus performed the miracle of the loaves and fishes, and the reputed house of the Apostle Peter, to whom Popes trace back their leadership of the Church.
7. Nazareth, Israel, March 25 - His voice hoarse after six days of homilies and prayers, Pope John Paul II journeyed through Jesus' boyhood town Saturday and, flanked by black-robed priests, visited the spot where the Bible claims Mary learned she would give birth to the Christ child.
8. Jerusalem, March 26 - Pope John Paul II finished his tour of the Holy Land on Sunday morning with a visit to one of Judaism's most sacred sites, Jerusalem's Western Wall. Following Jewish tradition, the Pope placed a message to God in a crack in the wall asking for forgiveness for centuries of Christian mistreatment of the Jewish people. He also met Muslim leaders at the Al-Aksa Mosque, the third most holy place in Islam. However, the climax of the pontiff's personal pilgrimage was his visit to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, where Christians believe that Jesus was crucified, died and was resurrected.
We will look at the data-stream concurrent with the time of the visit. The selection of points above represents a formal prediction that the Pope's visit is important, and that it will bring global consciousness to an engaged focus at various times. I expect to explore more generously the possible patterns and structures in the data, but these specific points constitute a set with high expectation. We will use a 1-minute blocksize to parallel the sample size in Doug Mast's correlational analysis, and to allow for some fuzziness of synchronization among the eggs, some of which do not have xntpd running. We will look for spikes in cumulative traces of distribution parameters including the central value and variability metrics, in Z^2, and may apply the height X proximity probability metric used for Y2K spike assessment.

On Easter Sunday, April 23, 2000, at 2pm New York time (7pm, GMT) a global meditation and prayer event called The Great Experiment II is being promoted by Gregg Braden, Doreen Virtue and James Twyman. The event is described in more detail on their website.
Briefly, the suggestion is to, "... at the appropriate time in your time zone, stop for ten minutes and follow this simple format: Begin by breathing deeply and get very comfortable. If you have a small piece of cloth hold it in your hands ... [You can repeat thoughts such as,] "I accept peace this moment for myself and for all sentient beings on this and every planet. I accept my role as an Emissary of Light, ... May peace prevail on earth."
The GCP prediction is that there will be a positive deviation during the 10-minute period from 19:00 to 19:10, UTC (corresponding to the time specified in the announcement). Analysis will use 1-second blocking and the expectation is medium.
Note: Although this is a formal prediction, it has a curious quality, especially with regard to the possibility of experimenter influence. The Twyman group announced that I would be measuring the effect of their "Great Experiment" in 1998, but that was not true. I perceive this event as driven in part by self-promotion, which imparts an undesirable flavor, but at the same time I believe it has a good central core and that many people will appreciate it and benefit from it. Thus the prediction is made in a context of potential contradictions: I think the event per se properly belongs with other widely promoted global meditation events, while at the same time, the outcome might be affected by the mixed motives projected in the organizers' promotional literature, and which I, as experimenter, keenly feel.

On Thursday, 4 May 2000, the fifth World Earth Healing Day will take place. This annual event, which began in 1996, has linked up thousands of people across the world in meditation, prayer, and mindful activity to help raise world consciousness and further world healing.
World Earth Healing Day seeks to promote a greater awareness of our interconnectedness as a global family, and to provide an opportunity for people to express collectively their vision of a more harmonious and peaceful world.
"On World Earth Healing Day you are invited to join people around the world in three simultaneous worldwide linkups. The first will take place at 4am GMT (5am in the UK); the second will take place at 12 noon GMT (1pm in the UK); and the third will take place at 7pm GMT (8pm in the UK). Each linkup will last for at least 20 minutes. During this time you can meditate, pray, dance, sing, or perform a symbolic act. Whatever you do, dedicate your intent to the expansion of love and awareness on the Planet, and as you contemplate your connection with all things, sense the ripples of what you do spreading outwards to influence all."
The GCP prediction will be for a composite effect across the three linkups, each 20 minutes long, beginning at 0400, 1200, and 1900, GMT, on the 4th of May, 2000. We will use a superposed epoch analysis, with unblocked data. An exploration will examine 5 minute blocks, and we will separately examine the first minute from each linkup.

Prediction by Arnold Lettieri: "I predict that the season finale, on August 23 2000, of the popular CBS-TV show, "Survivor," which has an expected audience of 40 million souls, will yield a small positive deviation of composite Chi-square from expectation, with a peak somewhere between 2000 and 2200 EST, the time slot for this program."
This prediction is clearly US-centric, but will be treated as a global event in the same spirit as the US political and sports events have been. The formal prediction is thus a cumulative deviation of chisquare during the two-hour period of the show, using one-second resolution, with low or medium expectation. The "peak somewhere" cannot be used in a formal prediction since it is non-specific.

Several sources suggested that the GCP make a prediction for the Millenium Peace Summit of Religious and Spiritual Leaders. The first was by Murali Dhar, who sent an email on Tue, 20 Jun 2000.

Subject: Re: PARTICIPATION IN G C P

Dear MR. Roger Nelson

     BEST WISHES IN THE NAME OF GOD.........
Please play special attention to the spirtual meet
where about 100 religious heads are meeting on one
platform coming from allover the world. Please make
efforts to record the speeches of all the heads.They 
have to be available on our web site.
The International Spirtual Meet is begining on 28 th
August at Newyork under the leadership of U N 
Secretary  General Mr .Kofi Annan

Murali Dhar

On 31 August, Chris Hardy asked, "Are you going to analyze data in sync with the UN's Millennium World Peace Summit?" She included a description by Sharon Franquemont of the experience of being there. It is a moving description, and several quotes are included in the analysis document for this event.

An Eskimo, Angaangaq Lyberth, from Greenland said, "About 10 years ago now, 
one of my people came back to our village and reported a strange phenomenon.  
'There is a trickle of water coming down the glacier.  I think that the 
ice is melting.'"  Today that trickle is a stream of water. 
So I say to you, while we sit here talking, and making commitments to peace, 
remember the ice is melting.....the ice is melting.  But this ice is easy to 
melt compared to the ice in the human heart, so I am going to sing a song for 
that, a song to melt the ice of the human heart."  Standing there in clothing 
made from 3 different types of seal skins and a simple leather string around 
his forehead, he took out a large seal skin drum and began to play a haunting 
and deep call to inner integrity.  When he finished, he whispered once again, 
"Remember the ice is metling."  After a moment of stunned silence, those who 
had listed to this remarkable presentation with 65 Indigenous people standing 
in support behind them broke into thunderous clapping again.

The suggestions for inclusion of the event have not been explicit, but we have a reasonable precedent in the Pope's visit to the Middle East. The events share an aspect of pilgrimage, and both occasions are clear statements of the integrated world we need to achieve. The formal analysis will follow the same criteria, presenting the whole period of time from the 28th to 31st August, and using a one-minute blocksize. In secondary analyses, particular events may be singled out.

The Olympic Games are an international event of considerable interest around the world, and Robin Taylor of Fiji predicted that the lighting of the Olympic Flame would engage broad attention and yield a positive trend in the EGG data. From the official calendar we have:
"The Opening Ceremony for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games will begin at 7pm (AEDT) on Friday, September 15 and end three hours later at Stadium Australia at Homebush Bay."
The order of proceedings placed the torch ceremony at the climax of this period. The actual timing of events is difficult to determine, but several reports indicate it was drawn out, and the most direct indication I could find of the time the flame was lit by Cathy Freeman was an observation in a commentary email that the ceremony was 4 hours and 20 minutes long. This would place the climax well after the nominal time, and the planned analysis thus was arbitrarily set to cover the period from 11:00 to 12:00, GMT, corresponding to 22:00 to 23:00 in Sydney. The blocksize will be seconds, and the assigned expectation is medium. Some exploratory analyses will look at the data from individual eggs in the region, particularly those in New Zealand.

Funeral Ceremonies, Pierre Trudeau. Mahadeva Srinivasan (Chino) was visiting in Canada and the US, and suggested that the deep impressions generated by the ceremonies for former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau might be a global event to which the GCP network would react. He wrote a detailed description of his own impressions, which form the basis of a formal prediction for deviation during the two hour period of the ceremonies. The assessment will use the raw trial data, and the expectation is medium. Here is Chino's description:

... I watched the funeral ceremony for Pierre Trudeau which took 
place in Montreal and shown live on Canadian television this morning 
from 11 am to around 1 pm. It was generally touching. Nobody expected 
the kind of spontaneous outburst of "feeling" and emotional expression 
the way it happened and in such a scale during the past two or three 
days. But the most touching and moving scene during the entire ceremony 
in my opinion was the 10 minute Eulogy given by Trudeau's son Justin 
Trudeau at the end of the funeral ceremony. Justin is probably about 
30 years old , but looks even younger. The boy works as a school 
teacher in Vancouver. He read out from a piece of paper in English and 
French but it was done extremely well. I am sure a few million people 
in Canada must have cried when he ended, for he himself burst into 
tears in front of an audience of may be 20 million Canadians and may 
be more outside Canada where the ceremonies may have been televised 
live. Perhaps it may be worth looking at the response of the GCP EGGS. 
The time was 12.40 pm (day time) and the date was Tuesday 3rd October 
2000. You may scan a 5 or 10 minute interval centred around the 12.40
time mark

Note: This prediction was fully specified in email correspondence, but inadvertently not entered when it was written, prior to the event.

On Sun, 26 Nov 2000, mukesh garg wrote:

> Another such event to be observed closely is Miss World contest
> to be held on Nov 30 in London.  In 1997,it was seen by an estimated
> 2.5 billion > people in 155 countries which was a record for any
> TV show.  Let us see what results we get after this "global event".

I asked for more precise information, and we agreed on a prediction.

Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 10:32:32 -0500 (EST)
From: mukesh garg 
Subject: Global Event

Read your msg. just now.  The 50th Miss World contest will commence today
(30th NOV) at 8.00 pm (local London time) at Millenium Dome in London.
The program shall last for about two & half hours.  The final winner is
declared just 5 minutes before the end.  This program is not being telecast 
live in Malaysia.  So I can not watch it live.  Later when they show the 
recorded program, I shall watch & note down the exact timings and let you know.

The prediction is by both of us, and for the formal event, we will look at the last five minutes of the program, from 10:25 to 10:30 London time, with medium expectation and one-second resolution. We will also assess the full two and a half hour of the complete broadcast in an exploratory mode.

This prediction is for departures from expectation correlated with a global meditation with the theme of love. It occurs at a unique time, 010101, particularly in the context of the GCP technology, which is based on potentially labile random bit sequences, that is, sequences of 010101....
People are looking for ways to celebrate the future, and many are working on plans and notions that they feel will help us to move toward a nicer, healthier world. Grand proposals for mass meditations and heartfelt promotions of group prayers are focused on raising the level of human consciousness, and this is of obvious interest to the Global Consciousness Project. This prediction relates to one of the many plans, and it is especially charming because the time is 010101, that is, the First day of January in the year 2001. Given the precision of one second in the GCP data, an extended specification can be made for a special moment precisely at 010101 on 010101, that is one hour, one minute, and one second after the New Years midnight. Arnold Lettieri predicts, furthermore, that the signature of this moment will be flat as a pancake, and though we are a little unfamiliar with the science of flatness, it is part of the picture. I note that, after all, in the language of REG devices, 010101, 010101 ought to be understood as a word or two about balance. Maybe flatness and balance are akin to each other; maybe the flat and the spiked are mirrors of each other, and equally meaningful, especially when in balance.
The prediction is by Nelson and Lettieri and is based on Andreas Buechel's proposal, made in an email dated Thursday, 16 Nov 2000 18:09:16 +0100. His subject line: stimulating global counciousness with a global lovewave.
You can find the full description in the 010101 analysis page. Here are the primary elements of the prediction.
```
... we can be loving even to people we do not know, to both our 
friends and enemies; we can say "I love you" to Mother Earth, 
to all beings.  Let us do this wave of love for the first time 
at new year's eve 2001 ... to welcome a new age at 010101 ... as 
one nation, one race, one unity of love 

In order to have a shared plan, there are three possibilities 
to join the first wave of love as far as timing is concerned: 

1: During the 48 hours from the beginning of 31.12.2000 
   till the end of 01.01.2001, Greenwich Mean Time Zone, 
   I think, feel, say or express otherwise "I love you" 

2: During 31.12.2000 23.45 pm and 01.01.2001, 0.15 am of 
   my Local time I think, feel, say or express otherwise 
   "I love you" 

3: Between 31.12.2000 23.45 pm and 01.01.2001 0.15 am, 
   Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) I think, feel, say or express 
   otherwise "I love you" 

... the greatest focussing of attention will most likely be 
at possibility three.   You can visit the lovewave website at 
http://www.8ung.at/abc/lovewave.html and see the global ongoing 
actions connected to this idea.  
```
We will accept Andreas expectation as the essential prediction, namely that the 30 minutes centered on midnight, GMT, will show a deviation. A second, exploratory prediction (based on the sheer fun of the symbolism) is for a momentary departure from expectation an hour and a bit after midnight. We will predict a special quality in the data, something indicating synchrony, at 01:01:01 on 01/01/2001. Both predictions are with medium expectation, and we will use unblocked data (seconds) for analysis.

Note: This prediction was fully specified in email correspondence, but inadvertently not entered when it was written, prior to the event.

Kumbh Mela is a great pilgrimage. Two correspondents independently suggested it should be a GCP event, Arvind Panchal and Mahadeva Srinivasan. Arvind said on January 10th:

    Dear Dr. Roger 

    The results [of the GCP] have quite encouraging. I would like to
    attract your attention one very big event which is going on in INDIA
    in a few days. It is MAHAKUMBH Bath time, when people take a
    holy dip in the river Ganges in Allahabad in INDIA. The
    MAHAKUMBH comes after 12 years and all true hindus make it a
    point to visit the place and take the holy dip. As the newspapers
    reported yesteday as many as 4.2 billion people took bath. Now I
    certainly feel that this is an event which must show up in GCP. If not
    world wide at least in GCP sites in INDIA we must see the change. I
    would like to know the results due to the MAHAKUMBH event. 

    You can see the local newspaper sites to get an update on the
    MAHAKUMBH http://www.timesofindia.com/today/ Arvind

With the help of Chino Srinivasan, a colleague in the GCP who is familiar with the Kumbh, the prediction was made for a deviation of the mean across all eggs during the most concentrated time of the Kumbh. On January 24th 2001, the media were predicting that 30 million people would try to bathe in the Ganges. We decided that the daylight hours (05:30 to 18:30 in India) should be the focus of the GCP prediction. Standard analysis, medium confidence.

Note: This prediction was fully specified in email correspondence, but inadvertently not entered when it was written, prior to the event.
From the USGS National Earthquake Information Center:
On January 26 2001, a major earthquake occurred IN GUJARAT, INDIA about 65 miles (110 km) north-northeast of Jamnagar, India or about 180 miles (290 km) southeast of Hyderabad, Pakistan at 8:16 PM MST today, Jan 25, 2001 (Jan 26 at 8:46 AM local time in India). A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.9 WAS COMPUTED FOR THIS EARTHQUAKE. The magnitude and location may change slightly as additional data are received from other seismograph stations. According to preliminary reports, some buildings collapsed in the state of Gujarat. The earthquake was felt at Mumbai (Bombay) and Delhi, as well as Karachi and Peshawar, Pakistan and in parts of Nepal. On June 16, 1819 an earthquake in this same general area killed 1500-2000 people.
This quake was similar in magnitude to the Turkish quake in August 1999, and the prediction in this case was based on the striking outcome for the earlier quake. The period beginning 15 minutes before the actual event, continuing to 15 minutes after was taken as the formal data segment. Medium confidence, standard analysis.

Prediction, RDN, Mar 30: Taking another chance on one of the world-wide prayer events. Joanne Karl of the WorldPuja sent a note
just letting you know we are doing a live webcast w/ James Twyman from South Africa March 31st at 11:45am NY time. you can go to www.worldpuja.org for details.
we have also added chat again as we did on the Dec 17th webcast. this certainly does intensify the feeling among participants and we suspect increase coherence. it becomes a truly interactive webcast.

This is not enough information to specify the prediction, so I have arbitrarily decided to look at one hour, by seconds, beginning with the appointed time. So the prediction is for deviation during the time from 16:45 to 17:45, 31 March 2001. I'll also pull in the data for an extra hour before and after, for context.

Prediction by RDN, on April 2, based on information from Larry Ammar, without knowledge of the data. On April 1st, 2001, Johrei Fellowship welcoming ceremonies were held in five locations around the world, Japan, Thailand, Africa, Brazil, and the US in New York City. All the ceremonies began at 11:00 local time, except in New Youk, where it was at 13:00. The Ceremonies last about an hour, with the first 30 minutes given to honors and induction rituals, and the last half-hour is shared celebration. The prediction is for a significant deviation during the hour-long ceremony, for each of the five locations. We will use seconds resolution, and construct a superimposed epoch analysis (signal averaging) across the five one-hour periods, and put it in the high expectation category.
Prediction by RDN, on April 22, based on publicity and Elissa's note announcing a Unitarian event on the 22nd. Earthday is widely celebrated, but there is no particular moment or grand, localized event. Therefore, the prediction is for the whole day of April 22, UTC to show deviation. Thus, any and all group meetings, celebrations, and rituals for Earthday wherever they occur will have a chance to contribute to an accumulation. Seconds, medium.

Note: This prediction was fully specified in email correspondence, but inadvertently not entered when it was written, prior to the event.
Don Watson sent me information about celebrations of the full moon in Taurus, 7 May 2001, which is the focus of meditations to create global consciousness. This makes it seem reasonable for a GCP prediction, and though it is not necessarily a widely known participatory event, there certainly are many groups around the world who take it as an important moment. Don sent the basic information and a website, http://www.lucistrust.org/events/wesak.shtml, where I could get more precise timing. The prediction was for a period of 15 minutes exactly at the full moon, as described by a channeled Buddha. Specifically, the decision was made to take a 15 minute period centered on the full moon, which occurred at 13:54 GMT on the 7th. Medium confidence, standard.

Prediction by Masami Kondo, on May 2 2001: On Sunday, May 20th, 2001, 10:30am - 1:00pm Japan Time (i.e. Saturday, May 19th, 9:30pm - 12:00am EST), over 10,000 people will gather at the foot of Mount Fuji at the World Peace Sanctuary (supposedly the highest-vibration spot on earth) to pray for world peace using the scientific + spiritual method called the IN. The modest number of 10,000 participants and the locality may not make this event a "global event," but its impact is expected to be unprecedentedly global and substantial. The prediction is for a global effect, medium, seconds resolution. Japan time is +0900, so the UTC period is from 01:30 to 04:00, May 20.

Suggestion for prediction by several people, including Greg Nelson Elissa Hoeger, Rick Berger, Sharon Joy Kleitsch, that the voluntary blackout on June 21, 2000 may have an effect on the EGG network.
ROLL YOUR OWN BLACK OUT
THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER
JUNE 21, 2001 THURS EVE,
7-10pm worldwide, all time zones
Because the time period of three hours precludes signal averaging of independent segments, we will make this a simple day-long analysis, with seconds resolution, medium expectation.
Note added 030201: To clarify the specification, the 24 hour period begins at 19:00 somewhere in Asia, and ends at 22:00 Pacific time. This is 05:00 GMT on 21st to 05:00 GMT on the 22nd.

Many independent predictions suggestions for Summer Solstice, June 21, 2001, with the most direct coming from the World Earth Healing Day organizers.

On June 21 you are invited to join people around the world in three
simultaneous worldwide linkups. The first will take place at 7.30am GMT
(8.30am in the UK); the second will take place at 11.50am GMT (12.50pm in
the UK), during a solar eclipse; and the third will take place at 7pm GMT
(8pm in the UK). Please note that the UK will be observing daylight saving
time which is an hour ahead of GMT. Each linkup will last for at least 20
minutes. During this time you can meditate, pray, dance, sing, sit quietly,
or perform a symbolic act. Whatever you do, and wherever you are, dedicate
your intent to the expansion of love and awareness on the Planet, and as you
contemplate your connection with all things, sense the ripples of what you
do spreading outwards to uplift all.

The formal analysis will concatenate the data from the three time periods, and specify 20 minutes for each. High expectation, seconds resolution.

Peter Bancel writes on Fri, 13 Jul 2001 12:55:13 +0100:
"The site for the 2008 Olympics will be announced at noon Princeton time. This would be a good GCP prediction. There will be a billion Chinese following this intently."
The formal prediction is for a deviation during a half-hour period surrounding the moment of the formal announcement, using 12:00 noon as the point unless there is a significant change in the time for the event as determined from news coverage. This corresponds to the period 15:45 to 16:15, UTC. We will use seconds resolution for the analysis and specify medium expectation.
Added note: The CNN story announcing that Beijing won was posted at 15:38 GMT, and the BBC story at 14:22 GMT, which implies that the announcement itself was made probably at about 14:00 or a little later. Thus the prediction period must be moved back by two hours: The period from 13:45 to 14:15 UTC is set for the prediction.

Peter Bancel writes on Mon, 18 Jun 2001 14:56:51 +0100:
"I want to follow up on my suggestion for GCP/field reg probing of the Stupa consecration at the Rocky Mountain Shambhala Center (RMSC)."
He provided some information from the organizers, from which the following excerpts are taken:

Ninety Shambhala centers and groups are now involved. They stretch across four continents, promising to make the consecration the largest sustained event in the history of our community. More are signing up each week.
Most centers will be hosting a practice intensive that parallels the nine-day practice retreat at Rocky Mountain Shambhala Center from 9 to 17 August. Major centers like Karm� Ch�ling and Dechen Ch�ling will be hosting 24-hour-a-day practice intensives that will parallel the meditation schedule at RMSC.
The consecration ritual will take place for the entire nine-day practice intensive, which will be presided over by Sakyong Mipham Rinpoche accompanied by other rinpoches. During the intensive, they will complete the pujas necessary for bringing the stupa fully to life. The worldwide practice intensive is necessary to provide the purified ground for this process. It is our role as practitioners to create that global practice environment.
The prediction will be taken literally, and the full 9-day period from morning of the 9th to afternoon of the 17th will be considered, in a format parallel to that for the Pope's visit to the Middle East. The nine days' data will be concatenated in sequence, with the prediction based on one minute blocking for each day, with a medium level of confidence for the prediction.

On September 14 2001, three days after the terrible disaster in New York and Virginia, there were special times for prayer and memorial. Doug Mast prepared a formal prediction:
"It looks like there are at least two major events of interest--organized periods of silence in Europe and America. Let's sum the results from both places/times to form a single event, since they're close in "emotional distance." I predict the usual high sum of chi-square data from all reporting eggs, using unblocked (1 s) data, for sums over the time periods 1000 to 1003 GMT, corresponding to a European organized mourning (http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/09/14/europe.mourning/) and the time period 1200 to 1203 EDT (1600 to 1603 GMT, right?), corresponding to the beginning of the Washington service and many organized mourning events in the Eastern US. Call it a medium level of expectation.
"Secondary, non-formal prediction: European eggs will show higher deviation during the first interval and eggs in the US Eastern time zone will show higher deviation during the second interval."

On Fri, 28 Sep 2001, Paul Bethke wrote:

> Did you give any prediction to the 2-hour "Telethon" that aired last
> Friday on *every* channel from "Sea to shining see"? (I like that
> title.) If not - I'd like to make one.
>
> I'm still not sure how you do those duration-predictions. I'd think the
> two hours of the show (8:00-10:00 Central) would be a start - but I
> would think something like this could linger after anyone watching got
> "worked up". What do you think?

I think that is a good idea, and it had not occurred to me. My first reaction is to take the time you give for the program, 8-10 PM = 20:00-22:00, CDT; +5 -> 25-27 -> 01:00 to 03:00 UTC, Saturday 22 Sept 2001. Positive cumdev of Chisquare, seconds resolution, medium expectation. That could be the formal prediction, with exploration of linger as an option.

> Ok. That sounds logical. I *do* like the "linger", however. 
> Let's be sure to explore that option.

Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2001 08:48:41 -0700
From: William Braud 
To: Roger Nelson 
Subject: an upcoming coherence of attention

I didn't know if you were aware that at 2:00 p.m. EST, Oct. 12,
there may be a great coherence of attention as thousands of school
children (elementary and secondary) across the U.S.A.  simultaneously 
recite the "Pledge of Allegiance." This could be a good time to look 
for coherent activity in the random generator "EGGs."

Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2001 22:29:45 -0700

Thanks for your response. Yes, let's make a formal prediction about
this one. Adding such a "positive" coherent event could be useful.
You are right about the time, it should be EDT, rather than EST.
About the time window, what about adding five minutes in front of
the event, since one would think the students would be preparing
and thinking a lot about it just before it began. What about 1:55
p.m., CDT through 2:15 p.m.., CDT?
The rest of the parameters you specify in your e-mail (pasted
below) seem good ones to use, too. I look forward to seeing what
the numbers reveal!

> I have been traveling, and I didn't know of the Oct 12
> event.  It seems like a viable prediction for the GCP, and
> if you are agreeable, we can make it a formal one.  To do
> that, we would need to specify a beginning and ending time
> for the event, possibly 2:00 pm EST to 2:15?  (Is EST
> correct?  We actually have EDT until the 25th of this month.)
> I would suggest specifying seconds resolution for the analysis,
> and give a medium confidence rating.

The predicted time is 18:55 to 19:15, GMT.

Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2001 13:59:43 -0400 (EDT)
From: Greg Nelson 
Subject: Fwd:  October 15 Binding Spell on Osama Bin Laden (fwd)

I'm making a prediction of increased coherence from
9pm-9:30pm EST, if you want something formal.

> Wherever you are, whatever your individual
> tradition may be, please plan to join with
> hundreds of others "of like mind" on the evening
> of Monday, October 15 at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to
> perform a Binding on Osama bin Laden. A Binding is
> a magickal act designed NOT to cause harm to the
> subject, but to render him powerless to act and to
> immobilize him.

I am assuming the time indicated is EDT, so the corresponding period in GMT is 01:00 to 01:30 on the 16th of October 2001. Seconds resolution, medium confidence.

Prediction, David Orme-Johnson:
MUM Dome numbers peak. After Sept 11 over 1000 meditators came to Maharishi University of Management (MUM) to meditate together to create an influence of stability and peace in the country. Together with the people already here, the number of meditatiors reached a peak of over 1,800. The specific days and times of over 1,700, the number we predict will affect North America, were Sept 23-27, with the most people flying at 7:00 to 7:15 PM EDT. Sept 26 was the peak number, over 1,800. David says that although, "we have been meditating most of the day every day, this specific period of Yogic Flying is predicted to have the most powerful effect, which is the subjective experience of waves of bliss. So our theory predicts that there will be a national effect that is different from the background meditation at that time, on the 23-27th of Sept. with 26th the max."
The formal prediction is for a departure from expectation in the data from 23:00 to 23:15 GMT on the five days from 23 to 27 September 2001. For display, the five 15-min periods will be concatenated in sequence.
Note: In subsequent email correspondence David decided the full day of meditation was the appropriate test, since that is representative of the TM theory. The final prediction -- for the formal test -- is the period from 11:45 to 23:30 GMT for the five consecutive days.

November 6, 2001. Several people have sent the suggestion that a widely publicized global meditation on November 11th should be monitored. Barbara Wolf sent a general description, which proposes a meditation at 11:00 in your own time zone on the 11th of November, thus, 11/11/11. She responded to my question about the length of time to consider by proposing "15 minutes between 11 a.m. and 11:15 a..m. in order to include 11 minutes after the hour. Nov. 11, 11:11 a.m." Independently, Don Watson sent a note about a proposal to make sounds with voice or instruments at that time. Both of these suggestions are propagating over the internet quite widely. The formal prediction is for a signal averaged composition across all time zones, using the standard Chisquare analysis, with the time period set as 11:00 to 11:15. Seconds resolution, medium expectation.

November 6, 2001. Multiple sources propose an analysis of time periods on the first day of Ramadan. The WorldPuja organization is promoting a moment of meditation as a way to participate in their live, global webcast at noon on November 16. The announcement says "daylight savings in effect" but they also say Eastern Standard Time, so the time is probably 12:00 noon in New York. There is no length of time specified.
On the same day, there is a call for Muslims to unite in prayer: "Imagine All Muslims around the world saying 'ALLAH AKBAR' at the same time. Let us all unite Friday 1st Ramadan 1422 16th Nov. 2001 for 3 minutes starting 2 PM MAKKAH Time 11 AM GMT. We will be united for at least 3 minutes please let us try to be ONE NATION."
I will predict a positive trend for both of these, and combine them by concatenation, with three minutes for each, for display. The times are 11:00 to 11:03 GMT, plus 17:00 to 17:03 GMT. Both predictions are seconds resolution, medium confidence.

Prediction, email in early December 2001, from a GCP correspondent who uses astrological information in an array of potential predictors for real world applications. The astrological descriptions are treated as indirect indicators for decision making, and address world conditions or events such as natural disasters, threats of war, attacks, etc. If the predictions are effective in that context, they also should point to GCP events.
We agreed to test this hypothetical correlation by analysing a few of the astrological moments identified by the methods used for the decision analysis. I received a list of five moments:
```
    Dec 9, 3:15 PM EST.  Moon occupies 14.1 Libra, degree
    of Mercury on 9/11 attack date and Nov 12 American
    Airlines crash.

    Dec 13, 9:06 PM EST.  Moon occupies position of Pluto
    at 12.6 Sag on 9/11 attack date.

    Dec 14, 1:35 AM EST.  Moon occupies 15.1 Sag (hot spot
    of Mars during 2001)

    Dec 14 2:03 AM EST.  Moon conjunct Pluto at 15.4 Sag
    and activates Saturn-Pluto opposition.

    Dec 14 6:10 AM EST.  Venus occupies 15.1 Sag (hot spot
    of Mars during 2001)  

    As the moon is usually very precise, a time window of
    +/- two hours is appropriate with the morning of the
    14th probably lumped into one test.
```
The formal specification was for a composite of the five 4-hour events, each centered on the predicted time. Standard analysis, seconds resolution, medium confidence.

Prediction December 2, 2001.
From: Don Watson
Subject: Harrison - minute of silence

Greetings! Roger,
Here's a time-specific event:
"As a tribute, Harrison's widow and son asked fans to join them for a minute of meditation. .... "Olivia and Dhani invite you to join them in a minute of meditation in honour of George's journey, wherever you are on Monday at 1:30 p.m. PST (1830 GMT)," de Becker said. .... http://www.cnn.com/2001/SHOWBIZ/Music/12/02/harrison.funeral/in dex.html

The formal prediction is for that minute, medium resolution, standard analysis, seconds resolution.

Prediction, Roger Nelson: The opening ceremonies for the 2002 Winter Olympics are expected to be engaging not only for the people in Salt Lake City, but many millions around the world who are watching their athletes coming together in this long-standing ritual of sportsmanship. Even though the games have been sullied by scandal, they do engage the attentions of people quite deeply and genuinely. As best I can tell the schedule has the Opening beginning at 18:00 Local time on February 9, 2002, which is 01:00 on the next day in UTC. In keeping with past specifications, we will make the period of time three hours, so that the data from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC, 020209 will be the formal segment. Standard Stouffer Z analysis, medium confidence, all eggs.

Prediction for meditation event on March 15 2002, registered Mar 24 by Peter & Trudy Johnson-Lenz.

Subject: Re: Sri Lankan peace meditation March 15, 2002

On March 15, more than 500,000 people in Sri Lanka gathered to meditate
for peace at the Sarvodaya People's Peace Operation 2002.  They were
silent, all in white, and the meditation itself lasted several hours.

Sharif M. Abdullah, a long time friend, was there and provided a
detailed description of the remarkable experience.  He also gave the
needed information to specify the event:

Dr. Ariyaratne mounted to podium to begin the meditation at 3:40 pm.
The meditation continued until 4:45 pm.  
This converts to 9:40 am - 10:45 am GMT.

The formal event specification is 09:40 to 10:45 GMT, seconds resolution, high expectation, standard analysis. We will also look at a longer period around this time and may look also at the relatively local eggs individually, for exploratory purposes.

Prediction for April 20 2002 by Don Watson
Don sent a note on 15 April with the following information from a web and email promotion of a world-wide prayer vigil sponsored by a group that does this with some frequency:
`Join us in "Praying Peace" with the Indigo Children in the Middle East April 20th, 6pm New York Time, 11pm UK, 8am April 21 in Sydney.'
I asked Don for more information on the duration of the predicted event, and we agreed on 10 minutes, since that has been the length of the publicized communal prayer in other instances. The formal prediction is for 10 minutes beginning at 6pm EDT, which is 10 pm UTC. The expectation is medium, and we will use the standard meanshift analysis (squared Stouffer Z) with seconds resolution.

Prediction for April 14 2002 by Ray Anderson.
Winning the Master's was a Tiger Woods moment, which I think may have an effect like the OJ Simpson or Academy Awards. The main play occurred between a tee time of 2:22 PM EDT 4/14/02 and a finishing time of approximately 6:30 to 7:00 PM. My belief is that the true moment of the effect of national involvement occurred approximately at 4:30 PM as Vijay Singh erred and Tiger placed a critical iron shot on the green to protect his three stroke lead.
The formal prediction is for 14:22 to 19:00 EDT, which is 18:22 to 23:00 UTC, standard analysis, medium confidence, seconds resolution.

Prediction, Tobias Bodine, registered 5 June 2002 for 7 June:
As the World Cup is billed as the "world's largest sporting event" and seems to have the numbers to back it up, I think it would be a wonderful opportunity to see whether there will be effects on the GCP data being collected during crucial soccer matches. The next match that is nearly certain to have strong viewership around the world will be coming up at 1230-1430 London Time on June 7 (England vs. Argentina). The teams are two of the favorites to win the championship, and have a strong history of rivalry that goes beyond just soccer (e.g., the Falklands War). Fans in the soccer world have been waiting on the edge of their seats for this game for months now, and expectations are high for an exciting match.
```
Assessment after watching the match, in a nutshell (approx times):

1130 GMT     ... interest builds up to the start of the match
1130         ... kickoff of match (a moment of high excitement as a
		  long-awaited event is finally realized)
1130-1212    ... ebb and flow of match play
1212-1216    ... heightened interest in the match due to a penalty
		 kick situation, culminating in the scoring of a goal
1219-1238    ... lowered interest due to half-time
1238-1325    ... ebb and flow of match play
1325         ... interest/attention begins to drop off
```
The formal prediction is for a departure of the data during the period from 11:30 to 13:30 UTC, standard analysis, medium confidence, seconds resolution. After watching the match Tobias offered considerable detail about the special moments of interest, as well as information on other matches in the world cup. As time allows these may be included in the Exploratory analyses section.

Prediction, email 19 June 2002, from the GCP correspondent who uses astrological information in real world applications. This is the second such specification, and again I was provided with precise times and dates. Again I extracted for analysis the four-hour periods centered on the times.


... Saturn's role as a trigger and that more attacks may occur within 
the final 15 minutes of the applying transit, possibly ending with a 
crescendo of violence ...  it will be exact on 

Thursday June 20 at 11:48 EDT.

Negative astrological energy may also manifest when faster moving 
planets, such as the Moon, transit slower moving aspects.  Some of 
these I included in the first test of "Astrological Moments" during
December 2001.  

Sunday June 23 11:06 AM EDT: Transiting Moon conjunct Pluto

Sunday June 23 6:57 PM EDT: Transiting Moon opposed Saturn

The formal specification was for a composite across the three 4-hour periods centered on the predicted times. Standard analysis, seconds resolution, medium confidence.

Note: This prediction was fully specified in email correspondence, but inadvertently not entered when it was written, prior to the event.
The Summer Solstice is an occasion for many rituals and celebrations. I received at least three notes suggesting it would be a good bet for a GCP event. Some were not sufficiently specific for a prediction, but one did give descriptions of a convergence and times for people to give thought and focus to the time. This was in a note that I receive on a regular basis from affinity/infinity, a group that works for a better future via meditations and compassionate self regard.
```
    1. JUNE 21st SUMMER SOLSTICE MEDITATION (13:00 to 14:00
    UT/GMT - the exact peak moment for the Solstice is at 13:24 UT/GMT)

         FOCUS: Connecting With The Source Of Goodness In Us

         MEDITATION TIMES: June 21st, 2002
                                         San Francisco: 6:00 AM
                                         NY: 9:00 AM
                                         London: 2:00 PM
                                         Rio: 10:00AM
                                         Jerusalem: 4:00 PM
                                         Tokyo: 10:00 PM

         COMPLETE MEDITATION INFORMATION:
               http://www.aei.ca/~cep/June2002SolsticeFocus.htm
```
The formal prediction was drawn directly from these specifications. Standard analysis, medium confidence, 13:00 to 14:00 UTC on June 21.

Prediction, Tue, 2 Jul 2002 15:01:02 -0300

From: Pedro Paulo Balbi de Oliveira
In response to Pedro's remark about hoping his egg's data would be included in the response to Brazil's great victory in the World cup, I asked, "Would you like to make a [prediction] for the Brazil victory? If so, I will need the beginning and ending time of the match." Pedro supplied the information:
Start: 8:00 AM local time (11:00 UTC)
End: 9:48 AM local time (12:48 UTC)
These constitute the definition of a second sample from the 2002 World Cup. Standard analysis, seconds, medium confidence.

Prediction about World Healing Day, Aug 22 2002, from WEHD organizer, in email Aug 18.

"Each meditation linkup will last for at least 20 minutes, and will consist of clear and focused positive thought. During this time, keep in your mind and heart a vision of a world in which all live in peace, harmony, and joy. See conflict being resolved through forgiveness and understanding, and suffering being lifted. Visualize light spreading across the Planet as world consciousness is raised."
We could all take the world towards peace and healing in an instant, at the speed of thought, if everybody in the world acted together in their desire for peace.
We have a steadily growing list of the locations of participants on August 22. This is important: seeing that people are participating helps us all to see how well we are collectively doing on the healing path. It is also inspiring: reading the messages of others reminds us that we are not alone and that there is tremendous potential within people for change.

From Joe Giove we have some specific times:
```
World Healing Day Meditation Link Up

WHEN: This Thursday, August 22 (full moon)

TIME: 12:00 noon GMT and 22:20 (10:20 PM) GMT
         San Francisco: 5:00 AM & 3:20 PM
         New York: 8:00 AM & 6:20 PM
         London: 1:00 PM & 11:20 PM
         Tokyo: 9:00 PM & 7:20 AM (the morning of Aug. 23)
         Sydney: 10:00 PM & 8:20 AM (the morning of Aug. 23)
```
The formal prediction is that the 20-minute periods beginning at 12:00 and 22:20 GMT will concatenate in a positive trend. The standard analysis will be applied to the concatenated periods. We will also do the Device Variance Analysis, and use the composite probability for the formal outcome measure.

An early prediction concerning Sept 11 2002, made by Eckhard Etzold in March, 2002:
On 22 Sept 2002 Eckhard wrote reminding me of his prediction for September 11th from March 28th, and asking why had I not put it in the Prediction Registry and reported the results as I had promised. He was correct to chide me, for I had indeed not properly recorded the prediction. However, there is adequate documentation of the prediction, and I am now adding it, pursuant to doing the specified analysis.
On Thu, 21 Mar 2002, Eckhard Etzold wrote:
```
> let me try a prediction for Sept. 11th, 2002 (for "Scheduled Unique
> Events"), it is intuition:
>
> On September 11th. this year millions of people will remembering the
> terrorist attac of one year before and moved by feelings of pain and
> sorrow. The prediction will be for a composite effect for US eggs only.
> Expectation level is high, for all other medium. The time slot is
> September 11th, 2002, 12:45 UTC - 15:45 UTC (8:45 EDT - 11:45 EDT).
> Analysis should be using seconds resolution, z across all US eggs and
> squared.
```
I responded that we could do a prediction, but with a few of his specifications adjusted. I said the confidence level would be medium and that the formal analysis would use the full set of eggs. I said that if Eckhard agreed with my modified version, it would be added to the registry. He did agree. The formal prediction specifies the "standard analysis" which is tested for a positive deviation of the squared Stouffer Z per second, cumulated over the period from 12:45 UTC - 15:45 UTC (8:45 EDT - 11:45 EDT).

Predictions concerning Sept 11 2002, the anniversary of the terrorist attacks on Sept 11 2001.
From: Gloria Mitchell, Thu, 15 Aug 2002

Are you going to monitor the effects of an event called the "Rolling Requiem" which has been organized by the Seattle Symphony Chorale? To date 18 countries and 27 states will have chorals performing the Mozart Requiem on September 11. Most will be beginning at 8:46 a.m. in their time zone, hence the Rolling Requiem. In Olympia, because of the desire to have as much participation as possible, we will be conducting this remembrance concert in the evening at 7:46 p.m. There is more information at the web site of www.rollingrequiem.org.
(1)I did not have this as a prediction, but did have the general intention to examine the data from the year anniversary. This suggestion makes a nice format for that, and given the apparent publicity, might be a "global event" in its own right. We will use the suggestion as the basis for a formal prediction, assuming that the Rolling Requiem will continue with a kind of ceremonial attention or actual concert for a period of time similar to that of the terrorist attacks, about 1.5 hours.
Gloria sent more information in response to my questions.

The Requiem is about 45 minutes long (depending upon the endurance of the conductor). In Olympia, we are planning to have the Mozart "Regina Caeli" (spelled correctly I hope) The Seattle Symphony Chorale got the ball rolling on this. Additionally, not part of our program, the fire departments will be having their own remembrance ceremonies at 7:00. This is an event by the International Association of Fire Chiefs. So, there will probably be a spike around 7:00 p.m. as well as 8:46 a.m. Looks like you will have your hands full. By the way, thank you for putting all of this out on your web site. It is very informative (even though I don't have a degree in deciphering the data, I can see trends). Good luck

For the analysis, because the Rolling Requiem periods will overlap, we will do the simple, standard analysis of the full 24-hour UTC day. If time permits, we will do a signal average with a 10-min block beginning at 08:46 in each timezone. This will be an exploration.
(1.5)Of course this 24 hour analysis covers the times we might otherwise examine on the 11th. I have asked other people what they think might make sense as a prediction. There is a consensus that the engagement or focus will begin to be rather strong already on the evening of the 10th. We will look at the 10th for context, expecting there may already be a substantial deviation beginning as people on the East coast of the US are going to bed, say 10:00pm to midnight (02:00 to 04:00 on the 11th UTC). This is exploration.
(2)A second prediction will focus on the actual east coast time (EDT) of the terrorist attacks. We will do a device variance analysis duplicating that for 2001. This is a cumulative deviation of the variance, with permutation analysis to determine the probability of the maximum absolute excursion during the day, which we will assume is associated with the time of the attacks, approximately 08:45 to 10:30.

Prediction, Martin Bucholtz, registered 03 Oct 2002 for 03 October 2002: The first ever "World Earth-Human Festival," this event was officially the largest and most traditional Korea's Founding Day - "Korea's Birthday" - celebration of its kind.

Tonight there will be a celebration for World Peace, which will take place,
literally, on a massive scale: over 100,000 people are expected to gather 
at an Outdoor football stadium and this gathering will send out healing 
vibrations that are quite likely to have a big impact on on Humanity and 
on our Earth as well.

The Dalai Lama, as well as many governmental representatives have sent their
blessings for this event. It is being held in Seoul, Korea, on October the
3rd (Korea's Independence day), which will be tonight, either 12 midnight or
1am Eastern Standard Time (I'm not sure about the time difference).

Live Webcam is available tonight by the times specified on their
websites.  More information can be found here: 
http://www.wehanet.org/event/wehf_congratu.htm

We will formalize this as a prediction for 6 hours beginning at 13:00 in Seoul, Korea on the 3rd. This corresponds to 12 Midnight, EDT, on the 2nd of October in NYC, which is 04:00, UTC on the 3nd of October. (This is the best guess I can make about the times.) Standard analysis, medium confidence, seconds resolution.

Prediction, Petr Douza, registered 09 Mar 2002 for 12 October 2002:

I'd like to bring to your attention the EarthDance event, a global electronic music party organised each year as a peace meditation - through dance. It's being held since 1997 on second weekend of October, last year with 100 cities participating and 100,000 people dancing. All dancefloors are connected through "Prayer for peace", track played simultaneously at one time point in all partyplaces. I think a nice moment for GCP analysis. Next Earthdance is on October 12, 2002 (Prayer for Peace played at midnight London time).
Last year, most of the events were in Europe, North America and Australia, some also in: Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan (complete listing: http://www.earthdance.org/ed_PATH1/main_frame_venues.html). .... All people dance and pray at once, every timezone in different local time. According to the web site: "Morning in the Australian rainforest, midnight in London, afternoon in San Francisco and sunrise over the Himalayas". It's at 12 midnight London time (Daylight Savings Time). .... Prayer for peace is 4:18 minutes long, so perhaps the analysis can go from 00:00 to 05:00, or some ten minutes before and after that, for the global energy starts to rise before the actual moment, and stays after .... By the way, if you want to get the feeling, the track is downloadable in MP3: http://artists.mp3s.com/artists/52/star_children.html.
The formal prediction will be for ten minutes before to 15 minutes after midnight, London time. I believe that will be 00:50 to 01:15, UTC on October 13, but will have to check that because of daylight savings changes. Standard analysis, medium confidence, seconds resolution.

Prediction, Multiple sources, registered Oct 5 2002 for 12 October 2002: James Twyman, who works to focus thought and prayers on peace in the world, will be in Iraq and presenting a peace concert there. This event is being linked with the preceding prediction for "Earth Dance".

As many of you already know, I have been invited to perform a concert
for peace in Baghdad on October 12. Millions of people around the world
believe that war is an inappropriate solution to our problems with Saddam
Hussein, or any other international conflict. This is a chance to do something
about it, to use the power of prayer as a catalyst for positive change. I hope
you will forward this e-mail to your friends around the world. The goal is
for millions of people to focus their prayers of peace at the same moment.
We need your help to make this happen.
...
This is the second time the government of Iraq has invited me to Baghdad
when the threat of war seemed imminent. In 1998 millions of people from at
least 80 countries focused their prayers on Iraq, and three days later a
peaceful solution was achieved. This year the worldwide vigil is being
coordinated with another international event called Earth Dance, a peace
initiative being held in 106 cities around the world. (If you want
information on how you can join the gathering in your city, go to
EarthDance.org.) Over a quarter million people will gather in each city on
October 12, and at 1pm New York time participants will join together in
this prayer:
>
> We are one global family,
> all colors, all races, one world united.
> We dance for peace and the healing of our planet earth.
> Peace for all nations.
> Peace for our communities.
> Peace within ourselves.
> Let us connect heart to heart.
> Through our diversity we recognize our unity.
> Through our compassion we recognize peace.
> Our love is the power to transform the world.
> Let us send it out...
> NOW!!

The formal prediction will be for 20 minutes beginning at 13:00 New York time. This is 17:00, UTC (but check on daylight savings changes.) Standard analysis, medium confidence, seconds resolution.

Prediction, received via email on January 22, concerning the anti-war protests on January 18 2003.

Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2003 23:37:11 -0500 (EST)
Subject: Any results from the anti-war protests?
Dear Roger,
I'm writing to check in with the project to see if there were any measured shifts in global consciousness on January 18th as a result of the parallel anti-war protests around the world. I'de really love to know. I was in Washington and felt like there was a resonance in other parts of the globe.
Thanks,
Ashley Young

I said I would be happy to explore this, but that it would be valuable to make a specific, formal prediction. I requested a beginning time and ending time for a period that contained or defined the major gatherings, according to Ashley's feeling for the times that seemed appropriate.
My guess for a prediction is for a period of several hours, somewhere in the range of 10 am to 6 pm, Washington time, but I will use the official times for the formal prediction, obtained from Ashley or news services.
News services say start at 11, and no exact time for end, but around 3:30 or 4:00 pm. Ashley sent a note on 23rd confirming the period from 11:00 to 4:00-ish, and specifying that "the times that I think would be most appropriate would probably be between 1:30 PM and 3:30 PM on Saturday the 18th." This is the period when the "consciousness of the anti-war protesters was most heightened ..." The formal specification is thus 1:30 to 3:30 (18:30 to 20:30 GMT), standard analysis, seconds resolution. Subsidiary analysis will look at other periods, including the official time, the San Francisco period, as well as individual eggs close to Washington.

On February 9, 2003, James Twyman, Doreen Virtue, and Gregg Braden are asking everyone who can do so to join in "Living and Praying Peace". This is also called Great Experiment III, as the third event of its kind being promoted over the web and by word of mouth. I think I have already (mid January) gotten about half a dozen independent notes about it. There is a feeling of greater clarity and humble intent in this promotion, as well as a deeper urgency of purpose because of the growing danger of major clashes and war in the middle east and especially in Iraq. Included in the material I have received is this beautiful quote from Mother Theresa: "I was once asked why I don't participate in anti-war demonstrations. I said that I will never do that, but as soon as you have a pro-peace rally, I'll be there."
People everywhere are invited to focus their prayers of peace, sending a wave of healing energy to the governments of both the US and Iraq. The time is Sunday, February 9 at noon New York time (9 AM Pacific, 5 PM London). The global consciousness project prediction will look at the whole day centered on noon New York with our standard analysis at seconds resolution, focused on the hour from noon to 13:00 EST. As exploratory contextual analysis, we will look at this hour using the device variance perspective, predicting again that this period will show substantial deviation. In addition, we'll probably look at the 24-hour day, an at subsets of eggs.
This day has become a more general focus than described above, with many other groups contributing their encouragement to join in meditations and prayers for peace in the world, and peaceful resolution of the crises now troubling us. I am writing the final form of this prediction at about 12:45, after sitting for a time with Peace on Earth as my breathing mantra.

There is a building cascade of pro-peace demonstations in the next two days. For example, one of the lists that sends things to me describes the horrors that await if we do not succeed in halting the imminent war on Iraq, and then urges participation in rallies as a way of doing something to help:

If you can get to New York or San Francisco on the weekend of February 15-16 for the big marches and rallies, come -- because the numbers are vitally important.
The New York March and Rally is on February 15, in solidarity with marches in capitols all over the world, and is sponsored by United for Peace and Justice.
The San Francisco March and Rally is on February 16, and begins at Justin Hermann Plaza, at 11 AM, and marches to the Federal Building. To join with the Code Pink women�s cluster and the Pagan Cluster, meet us at 10 AM at Montgomery and Market St.

I will predict that the 15th will show departures from expectation in the standard analysis. At this time I don't have timing for the rallies, but when that information is available, I will do a signal average of the major time-blocks in Europe and US, and if indicated in the other capitols. The SF info suggests a period of perhaps 3 hours, from 10:00 to 13:00. In the absence of better info, this will be the timeblock we use. This will allow non-overlapping east and west coast and European periods. Note added late on the 15th, before looking at any data: The news reports indicate that millions were out, in hundreds of cities around the world. So the prediction will be simplified to accomodate all the major demonstrations, from Tokyo to San Francisco. Probably the simplest is to just predict the whole day, but expecting there may be greater effect in the times of the biggest, most intense demos, such as Berlin, London, and New York. In Berlin, the beginning was noon, and concluding speeches were expected between 14:00 and 16:00. London and New York also assembled at noon, other places at different times, e.g., Paris at 14:00. So our formal prediction is for the whole GMT day, standard analysis. Secondary predictions are for the Berlin, London, NYC locations with total time 11 to 20:00 GMT. We will also probably look at variance.

Prediction for 20030303, by Nelson, based on several inputs. At least three kinds of large scale events are being organized. They include the first day of the "Gather the Women" project, invitations to 3 minutes of prayer at 3:00 wherever you may be, and performances of Lysistrata, the urgent antiwar drama from ancient Greece, in more than 1000 venues from New Zealand to Alaska.
The prediction will be for the 24 hour day beginning with evening performance times in Australia and New Zealand, and ending in the evening in Alaska. Specifically it will be from 07:00 UTC, 3 March, to 07:00 UTC, 4 March. Standard analysis, seconds resolution.

Prediction, Carol Hansen Grey, registered 27 Aug 2002 for March 8 2003:

Women of Vision and Action, an international network of women leaders who are dedicated to taking spirit-based action to create positive change in the world is sponsoring a project called Gather the Women. It will take place the week of March 3, 2003 with daily activities leading up to the Global Gathering of Women on March 8th. We envision a billion women (and probably also many men) participating in some way in this project to ground the feminine energy and to bring the planet back into balance. We feel balance is key to bringing about the positive changes we all envision for our planet. If we look at all the challenges we face in our world today, it can be brought down to a core issue: the masculine/feminine energy is out of balance, thus every segment of ciety is out of balance. If something is out of balance it cannot function harmoniously. Working on correcting the balance is working at the cause level-- the only level where permanent change can be made.
You can find more information by visiting http://www.gatherthewomen.org.
At this writing, a specific time is not available. In case no more precise definition comes, I will arbitrarily take the full 24-hour UTC day as the analysis segment. Standard analysis, seconds.

Prediction suggested by several sources, beginning with the moveon.org announcement of a vigil:
Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 05:48:07 +0000
From: "Wes Boyd, MoveOn.org"
To: Roger D Nelson
Subject: Please help with a Global Vigil for Peace
Dear MoveOn supporters around the world,
Please visit http://www.globalvigil.org and plan a candlelight vigil for peace in your area on Sunday, March 16 at 7 pm. MoveOn.org and the Win Without War coalition, together with Archbishop Desmond Tutu and many faith-based organizations, are calling this vigil, and we need your help.
Beginning in New Zealand, this will be a rolling wave of candlelight gatherings that will quickly cross the globe. It's up to you to make this happen. Today we are asking individuals, like you, to organize a vigil in each community. We're hoping that thousands of small groups around the world will be inspired to come together and stand for peace.

In the web-distributed materials for organization of the vigil, the suggestion is made to maintain the vigil for something like half an hour, beginning at 7:00 local time. Although a signal average might be a good representation, I will specify a simple accumulation over the whole 24 hours, beginning at 7:00pm in New Zealand. Standard analysis, seconds. (UTC time is 07:00 Sun Mar 16 to 07:00 Mon Mar 17)

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